Once upon a time, it would all have been much more straightforward. Theresa May would have made the “meaningful vote” a matter of confidence, so that if the government lost the vote, May would immediately see the Queen, and request a dissolution of Parliament to trigger a general election. But not anymore. This is because…
If May Loses on Tuesday: Is This Her Route to a General Election?
Last Tuesday, the government lost three votes in the House of Commons. These defeats show how they have lost control of the House as the DUP increasingly withdraws their support. This loss of control is likely to be confirmed on Tuesday 11th, with the government losing the ‘meaningful vote’ on the deal reached with the…
Even For Remainers, A Second Referendum Is Fundamentally Flawed.
Yesterday, several hundred thousand people marched towards Parliament demanding a ‘People’s Vote’ on any deal the government concludes with the EU. For as long as any vote includes the option to remain, it will always be a second referendum. Taking the longer term view of a remainer, the idea of a second referendum is fundamentally…
How Would a Hung Parliament Play Out? Back to the 1970’s…
It appears to be more than a wobble. Discussion of a traditional mid-election blip in polls for the Conservatives has developed into predictions (notably by YouGov) of a hung parliament with the Conservatives as the largest party. However, other polls still indicate that a Conservative majority remains the most likely result next week. Nevertheless, it…
IndyRef 2: Adding a New Dimension to Brexit
Today, Nicola Sturgeon made her announcement that not only does she seek a second independence referendum, but that she intends to hold it at some point between late 2018 or early 2019. The Scottish Government will seek the approval of the Scottish Parliament as soon as next week, and then seek approval from Westminster to…
Miller: How the Article 50 Bill will play out in Parliament
NOTE: This post is an update of an earlier post, taking account of Tuesday’s Supreme Court decision. Today (Tuesday) the Supreme Court delivered its judgment in Miller & Dos Santos v Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union. Its main finding is clear, holding by a majority of 8 to 3 that an Act…
Preview on Miller – An Article 50 Bill? – Parliamentary Fun & Games
This week, the Prime Minister, Theresa May, has unveiled her twelve-point plan for Brexit as March 31st, her self-imposed deadline for invoking Article 50, draws ever closer. Yet, constitutionally there may be two hurdles to clear before invoking Article 50. These hurdles are only “maybes” because it depends on the decision of the Supreme Court…
Article 50: Was the Government Really Divorced From Reality? Analysing the High Court’s Decision in Miller
This post considers the implications of the High Court’s decision in Miller that Parliament needs to grant the government the authority to invoke Art 50. The first post below discusses the High Court judgment itself, and the prospects of the government’s appeal being successful before the Supreme Court. A second post will follow shortly, which…
Rather Than Labour Deselecting MPs, will Labour MPs Deselect Labour?
Earlier this week, I appeared on Nick Ferrari’s LBC Radio show to discuss the constitutional issues that surround the current state of the Labour Party and particularly what should happen if the Labour leadership pursued the “deselection” of all MPs. Deselection is when all current MPs would have to go through a selection procedure…
PMQs: The Challenge for Corbyn
Tomorrow (Wednesday) at 12noon sees the return of a fixture that some hate to miss. It’s Prime Minister’s Question Time (PMQs). While to some this may appear to be people just shouting at each other, PMQs serves a useful purpose. It is one of the ways in which the Prime Minister and the government are…